Session page, including audio: https://schedule.sxsw.com/2018/events/PP99241
Video of session: https://youtu.be/CiLmyA-gAZk
Ray Kurzweil, Google
Jessica Coen, Mashable
Ray: A computer will pass the valid Turing test by 2029; we
will achieve the technological singularity by 2045 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity).
The pace of progress is increasing. Ironically, people feel things are getting
worst because information about poverty, hunger and other problems is more
available and immediate; and we have an evolutionary disposition to pay
attention to and focus on bad news.
However, every aspect of human life is getting better.
We will see improvements to longevity, and we are in the
most peaceful time in world history.
Jessica: Elon Musk was quoted as saying that AI is more
dangerous than Nuclear weapons. What do
you think?
Ray: There are risks to AI, such as privacy and bias, but
I’m an optimist. I don’t see AI as an
external entity; we will have brain extenders and body extenders, so this
should keep it safe.
As an analogy, 40 years ago people saw the promise and
danger of biotech, and formed guidelines that govern the domain quite
well. This is a good paradigm for AI,
and last year, for the first time, there was a similar type of conference for
AI to discuss how to prepare.
Jessica: Do we have enough oversight on the domain?
Ray: We have a lot of regulations.
Jessica: Self-improving tech – how do we prevent it from
running away from us and diverging from human interests?
Ray: Any time AI impacts the world there’s a lot of
observation of it and monitoring of it.
There is a concern of its use in the military; the best strategy here is
to apply our own value sets to it. AI is
an implementation of human values.
Jessica: There is a large lack of diversity in the engineers
building the AI; how do you prevent that from impacting the AI that is being
created?
Ray: That’s a complicated issue, because there is inherent
bias in the data software is learning from and trying to correct it risks
inserting the corrector’s values.
The world has a pessimistic view. People feel things are getting worst in all
parameters. However, in 2020 we will be
able to print cloths for pennies per pound.
We’re moving towards the ability to print out housing and support
vertical architecture. The 50% deflation
rate of IT will apply to other resources as well.
We will be creating a synthetic neocortex in the cloud – by
2030 we will have a good model of a synthetic neocortex; we’ll be able to
connect these with our own. But even
before that, we already have brain enhancers – we are already augmenting our
creativity and capabilities.
AIs are not yet at the highest level of meaningful
interaction. Just a few weeks ago
computers passed a reading comprehension test at average adult level. They still can’t human level complex
comprehension, but they’ll gain that ability by 2029.
Jessica: Should conscious AIs be granted human rights?
Ray: once they reach consciousness (2029), yes, they should.
Question: What’s the next major industry to die?
Ray: They don’t die, they just transform. Agriculture will transform even more with
vertical agriculture. Transportation
will be transformed not just by autonomous vehicles, but also by virtual and augmented
reality, which will prevent the need to physically travel in the first place.
Question: Will we reach immortality by 2050?
Ray: 10 years from now we’ll have a flood of medical
enhancements. The third bridge is
medical nano-robots, enabling non-biological blood cells and T cells,
inner-body monitoring devices and organ augmentation (by around 2030s).
Question: What near term (2-3 years) innovation are you most
excited about?
Ray: In that timeline, 3-D printing at the submicron
level. Vertical agriculture is about
5-6 years away. VR/AR had a premature
start, and will take another 3-4 years to mature.
Question: What are futurists going to do after the
singularity?
Ray: It’s hard to see beyond that horizon.
Question: What do you think of the theory that we live in a
“Matrix”-like simulation?
Ray: If it was created for someone else, we should do our
best to keep them interested! There’s
another theory of thought that says the universe itself is a computer. There is some evidence to this: there are about
50 physical constants that exist, and could only exist in a very specific and
narrow range for the universe to be able to work.